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The Road to the 2026 Midterms: An Updated Look at the Races and Risks Ahead

With the midterms just a week away, the battle for control of Congress is coming into sharper focus. Our updated Road to the 2026 Midterms and Beyond analysis combines new Narrative x 535 polling with the latest race developments to examine where the political environment stands and what it could mean for businesses heading into 2027.

One development to watch is the growing influence of progressive candidates. Seven DSA-backed House candidates have already won their primaries and are headed to Congress, while another 5-9 progressive candidates have won theirs without DSA backing. Together, 12-16 members could influence the speaker's election, committee leadership, and closely divided votes, driving significant changes in the House.

Our latest Narrative x 535 polling sheds light on the attitudes behind this movement. More than half of Democrats (52%) view socialism favorably, compared with 45% who say the same about capitalism. Additionally, 52% of voters want a Democratic congressional candidate who will push hard for their priorities, even if it makes governing more difficult.

These views are more nuanced than they may appear. Among Democrats, 38% define socialism as a stronger social safety net within a mostly private-market economy. Taken together, the findings suggest growing support for candidates willing to challenge the party's traditional approach to governing.

For businesses, that shift matters. Download the updated analysis below.

 

DOWNLOAD THE FULL ANALYSIS

 

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