Three International Trends to Watch at the Intersection of Corporate Affairs and Policy
With a volatile US election cycle running at breakneck speed, it’s easy to forget that the vortex of American politics is only one piece in the larger picture of global policymaking. Elections abroad only rarely slip into the American news stream, with their implications often underreported and under-analyzed in American media and boardrooms alike. But they point to important patterns unfolding across the globe that will have a major impact on how businesses should approach advocacy and public affairs.
Just take the past few years. South America has seen massive power shifts in its two biggest economies – Brazil to the left, Argentina to the right. Labour scored a “loveless landslide” in the UK. The right wing made significant gains in the EU’s parliament while falling short in France. India’s prime minister lost his majority and was forced to form a coalition government, and Iran elected a reform candidate as president.
In June, Narrative Strategies announced its expansion into South Florida, recognizing that what happens outside of Washington and America’s borders can have an outsized impact on a company’s ability to operate and even influence US policymaking. Here are three international trends that should inform future policy advocacy and public affairs strategies:
Antitrust Expansion: Not Just an American Fad
The Biden administration’s Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice have significantly widened the scope of what is considered anti-competitive behavior in the US, with new regulations and a bevy of lawsuits that have touched nearly every industry. In addition to the European Union’s expansion of antitrust enforcement, nations in other continents have also taken part:
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Brazil will scrutinize healthcare M&A following April’s announcement of new guidelines on vertical mergers. These guidelines are expected to be used in reviewing a major hospital deal announced in June between a large healthcare provider and an insurer.
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The U.S. and Europe aren’t the only players going after technology companies. Japan joined the fray in April when its antitrust agency ordered Google to remedy advertising search restrictions.
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In Australia, the left-of-center Labor government proposed extensive reforms to antitrust policy, where firms will have to first get clearance on a deal from the country’s Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) instead of only empowering the agency to investigate after mergers and acquisitions are announced.
Bottom Line: Policymakers worldwide who share governing philosophies often emulate each other’s tactics. Competition policy has put that into overdrive, and business leaders should follow patterns in one nation that could inform future policymaking in another.
International Trade: Negotiating the Negotiations
Tariffs and free trade skepticism in the US will likely increase no matter who is elected to the White House. International leaders are preparing accordingly:
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The European Union has already made clear its intention to use tariffs, especially against China, to “negotiate better treatment.”
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Nations within the EU, including Germany, bypass normal diplomatic channels by directly promoting the importance of their industries, companies, and suppliers to US governors as a backstop against future trade policies.
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Governments in Mexico and Japan have brought on what they have deemed “Trump whisperers” to use the strength of personal relationships as the foundation of negotiations with a potential second Trump administration.
Bottom Line: International trade is not just about what nations say to each other. Patterns of debate and discussion within those nations are just as important in assessing both the risk and advocacy opportunities in trade policy.
Immigration and the Workforce: It’s Cultural, Not Geographical
The tit-for-tat on border security and immigration policy in American politics has seen seismic shifts over the past few election cycles. While migration crises and related issues have affected election results around the world, they have also driven policy in other areas:
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In response to these issues, Bloomberg recently reported that governments worldwide—including in the Netherlands and Australia—are considering limits on international students, which could affect how nations approach education policy.
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The points-based immigration system recently implemented in the UK included minimum salary visa rules, sparking debate about which countries were advantaged and which industries were favored to get a higher workforce share.
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Just about a year away from a general election, fierce partisan debates over immigration in Canada have now migrated into discussions about the housing shortage and overall residential cost of living.
Bottom Line: In the eyes of voters, immigration is usually a straightforward issue of who gets in and who stays out. However, backlash over these issues has driven political rhetoric and policymaking into economic and social areas in unexpected ways that should be monitored closely for any business with an international presence or depend on global talent.
The constant political volleying in Washington is only one piece of the public affairs puzzle. Those who understand global political trends will be best equipped to navigate them when they affect both federal and state policymaking.
