With just 96 days left until the 2024 Presidential elections, the future remains uncertain. It’s not only the race for the Oval Office that matters—understanding the composition and functioning of the 119th Congress is crucial for grasping the full impact on local, national, and international levels.
We’ve developed an essential resource to provide clarity on the current political landscape and its far-reaching implications. Dive into our comprehensive overview below to stay ahead of the curve and see what trends and shifts companies should watch for.
The Bottom Line Up Front
- Chaos at the Top of the Ticket Has Not (Yet) Changed the Dynamics of the Bottom of the Ticket, Nor the Issues Driving the Electorate.
- Unknowns About Seat Competitiveness, Member Makeup, and Legislative Functioning Will Drive the 119th Congress.
- Corporate Advocacy Should Pay Close Attention to Trends in States, Advertising, and Campaign Innovations
The White House
What Has Changed: Top of the Democratic Ticket
What Hasn’t Changed: The States in Play
Top Battleground States
- Arizona
- Nevada
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- North Carolina
- Georgia
The Senate
Republicans need a net gain of 2 seats for the majority (or 1 seat and control of the White House).
The House
Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats for the majority.
The Most Important Known Unknowns for 2024 Election
At the LOCAL level, have we seen the end of competition and ticket-splitting? This year, 90% of House seats are deemed uncompetitive. In 2022, only 23 districts split their votes for President and House.
At the NATIONAL level, what will total voter turnout be? Does Biden dropping out alleviate the issue of “double-haters,” or does Harris worsen it? Third-party choices, increased Democratic voter registration since Harris’ nomination, and growing distrust in the government’s effectiveness make predicting voter turnout nearly impossible. Campaigns are now working feverishly to identify which potential supporters may stay home.
At the INTERNATIONAL level, how will recent global elections change the geopolitical landscape? UK Labour won a “loveless landslide” on lower turnout and a split right. France’s right-wing seemed poised for power until the left won parliamentary elections. Recent European parliamentary results, Italy’s rightward shift, and surprising outcomes for reformists in Iran and India complicate how geopolitics affects economic decisions that could drive political choices in the U.S.
The Most Important Known Unknowns for 2025 and the 119th Congress
How much institutional knowledge will be lost? As of July 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House announced they would not seek re-election, including three GOP Committee chairs: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA, Energy & Commerce), Patrick McHenry (NC, Financial Services), Kay Granger (TX, Appropriations).
How will the end of the Chevron Deference change lawmaking? Agencies have been declawed, but it’s unclear how courts will handle current regulations in the short term or if Congress will prioritize legislation to provide agencies with clear execution guidelines in the long term.
What influence will the “Majority Breakers” have in the new Congress? In the U.S. House, the small number of competitive seats means either party’s majority will likely be slim. The influence of the Freedom Caucus or the Squad will depend on who is in the White House, but personalities and relationships make the governing environment unpredictable.
Trend that will Drive the Narrative
- What’s Talked About in DC is Acted Upon in State Capitols
- What’s Advertised by Candidates Provides Clues to Future Legislation
- What’s Innovated by Political Campaigns Could Drive Future Corporate Advocacy
Down Ballot Trends: Governors & Attorneys General
Governors - 11 elections this year
Attorneys General - 10 elections this year
Competitive Races/ Toss-Ups:
- North Carolina: Current A.G. Josh Stein (D) vs. current Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R).
- New Hampshire: Likely candidates former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D). (September primary)
Three current AG’s vacating their seats and leading in the polls for Governor: NC, WA, WV
Competitive Races:
- North Carolina: Two current U.S. House members facing off: Dan Bishop (R) and Jeff Jackson (D)
- Pennsylvania: Eugene DePasquale (D) and Dave Sunday (R)
Down Ballot Trends: State Legislatures
Arizona: GOP holds 1-seat majority in both the state House and Senate
Michigan: Dems hold a 56-54 advantage in the state House and 20-18 advantage in the state Senate
Pennsylvania: Only state Legislature split down the middle: Democrats hold the House by one seat and Republicans hold the Senate by six seats.
New Hampshire: GOP defending slim majorities in state House and Senate — making New Hampshire a top target flip for Democrats hoping to break the Republican trifecta. Dems are zeroed in on the House. GOP won surprise majority in 2020, currently holds 199 seats out of 400.
State capitals have become proving grounds for the policy agenda of both parties.
Down Ballot Trends: Policymaking in State Capitols
What’s talked about in our nation’s capital is increasingly acted upon in state capitals, with the potential of affecting your bottom line.
Political Advertising Trends: Republicans
Most Mentioned Topics in 2024 Republican Political Ads
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It should come as no surprise that mentions of immigration and the economy are tied among Republican political ads.
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Even the simplest reauthorizations of immigration programs should not be taken for granted in a Republican-controlled DC.
Political Advertising Trends: Democrats
Most Mentioned Topics in 2024 Democratic Political Ads
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The focus on healthcare should come as no surprise, but the outsized mentions of housing issues are a new trend.
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Both have “economic” connections in the eyes of Democrats, so healthcare and housing investments and stakeholder issues are likely to be a favorite legislative target.
Campaign Innovation Trends: Polling
The best political campaigns are multiplying their methods and paradigms when messaging, with the potential to be used in corporate advocacy.
The Evolution of Public Opinion Research
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Nearly 2 out of every 3 U.S. pollsters used different methods in 2022 compared to 2016.
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The best campaigns are using multiple different methods of quantitative (i.e. IVR and MaxDiff analysis) and qualitative (i.e. QualBoards) to get to the best messages, messengers, and platforms to use.
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Bottom Line: You get what you pay for; cheap methods produce unreliable results.
Campaign Innovation Trends: Advertising
The best political campaigns are multiplying their methods and paradigms when messaging, with the potential to be used in corporate advocacy.
The Evolution of Advertising in the Cord-Cutting Era
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Streaming – both independent of and owned by traditional content providers – and options for “ad-free” services have changed and challenged traditional paradigms of advertising.
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The best campaigns are evolving away from the DMA (Designated Market Area) approach and moving toward targeted addressable audiences by determined by specific demographics, streaming platforms, and targeting tools.
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Bottom Line: Advertising has become much less about WHERE and more about WHO and HOW.
Reminder: The Bottom Line
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Chaos at the Top of the Ticket Has Not (Yet) Changed the Dynamics of the Bottom of the Ticket, Nor the Issues Driving the Electorate
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There are Unknowns About Seat Competitiveness, Member Makeup, and Legislative Functioning Will Drive the 119th Congress
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Corporate Advocacy Should Pay Close Attention to Trends in States, Advertising, and Campaign Innovations
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
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Narrative is a full-service strategic communications firm creatively solving today’s most demanding reputational and public affairs challenges at the convergence of business, media, and politics. Narrative is a premier partner for the world’s most influential brands by building upon our deep experience synthesizing complex issues and executing public affairs, media and public relations, crisis response, and other mission-critical initiatives. Our expertise spans industries and issue sets, including biopharmaceuticals, consumer products, energy, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, tax, trade, technology, and more. We are powered by an award-winning team of senior strategists, detail-oriented practitioners, and imaginative creators who provide premium-level counsel and integrated service offerings that shape the ever-evolving communications landscape. To learn more, email info@narrativedc.com.
