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The Shifting Real Estate Landscape

The Shifting Real Estate Landscape
How political attacks are shaping the legislative and regulatory environment

Real estate is at a critical crossroads as market forces and political scrutiny overwhelms the industry. For example, "housing" was mentioned over ten times in the most recent presidential debate. Expectations for increased activity at the federal level are set to fuel legislative, regulatory, and legal actions at the state and local levels, likely leading to material threats to the industry.  


State of Play

Housing affordability has taken center stage in the 2024 presidential election, rising from a local issue that's received consistent attention to a national one that's increasingly polarized.  

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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Trade Jabs in New Housing Affordability Campaign Ads

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Housing’s Worst Crisis in Decades Reverberates Through 2024 Race

Harris Ads

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Trump Ads 

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In the News

Collage News


Why It's Happening

The median monthly housing payment for homebuyers in swing states has nearly doubled since the 2020 presidential election. (Bloomberg and Redfin)

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Home ownership affordability hits its lowest level since at least 2006 in June. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Home Ownership Affordability Monitor)

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Shelter accounted for more than 70 percent of core inflation's increase over the 12-month period ending in August. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

 

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The Risk for Corporate Actors in the Real Estate Market Continues to Increase

In 2019, 91 bills were introduced in 31 states and territories related to housing. By 2023, this number had climbed to over 2,200 bills in 53 states and territories, with 2024 trending in the same direction. 
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Heat Map gradient
 0 Bills Introduced from 2019-2024                                                               775 Bills Introduced from 2019-2024                          
 

Data sourced from National Conference of State Legislatures' Housing & Homeless Legislation Database


Risks for Corporate Actors in the Real Estate Market Continue to Increase 

The introduction of federal housing-related legislation over the last five year has surpassed levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. 
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Today's Threat Landscape

The reality of today's market is that dramatic shifts in mortgage rates coupled with pandemic-era changes in how people live shed a painful light on a significant lack of supply in housing. 

But the federal, state, and local actors are targeting "corporate interests" as culprit in an attempt to: 

  1. Limit ownership of properties

  2. Lower housing costs 

                                                     Activity Aimed at Limiting Ownership:                                Activity Aimed at Costs: 
 
Federal Screenshot 2024-09-17 at 2.15.31 PM Federal
State

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Local Local2 7

 



Emerging Risks to Watch 

This support for enhanced regulation and increased scrutiny will bleed into other areas of the market. 

Private Investment in Student Housing

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Local Commercial Development Local Commercial Development
Proptech Platform Operations emerging 4    emerging 8

 


How Property Owners Tell Their Side of The Story 

Point to the Reality of Their Role in the Market: 

Brookings

"Mega Investors are a very small part of the national single-family rental market-446,000 of 15.1 million, or 3 percent of the total single-family rental market." - Brookings Institution, Nov. 2023

 

Point to the Reality ...

Highlight the Value They Add to Communities and Economies: 

Smart data

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"Our membership has doubled as a result of this [data center] industry in the last seven years. What that does for our economy and what that does for this community is amazing, to have those kinds of six figure blue collar jobs this close to our nation's capital. This kind of stability that brings to our society and our community is unimaginable." (Loudoun Now, 7/23/24) International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 26

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What Happens After the Election​?

Regardless of which party takes control of the White House and Congress, we expect some degree of bipartisan scrutiny and noise surrounding all facets of real estate and housing policy to increase. 

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Both political parties will take a close look at aspects of the real estate market and housing policy as they prioritize their policy agenda in 2025.

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Increased unilateral executive branch action, especially under a Harris Administration. 

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Continued drum beat and potential escalation of congressional investigations, hearings, and political rhetoric. 

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Increased enforcement actions from the FTC, DOJ, and heightened state AG activity across blue and red states.

Bottom Line: Despite the mounting wave of scrutiny over the past few years, real estate's political moment has not yet reached its peak. This increase in noise and activity will continue to fuel legislative, regulatory, and legal action at the state and local levels where material threats to operations are likely to occur.

 

 

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