The United States is just as polarized as it was four years ago.
As of this morning, Joe Biden led Donald Trump in the popular vote by 2%, slightly narrower than Hillary Clinton’s 2.1% edge in 2016.
Even if Joe Biden wins, Tuesday was not the wave many Democrats, pollsters, and members of the media predicted, as Trump preserved much of his 2016 coalition.
The final average of national polls by Real Clear Politics on Election Day showed Biden winning by 7.2%.
Despite those still-narrow margins nationally and in key swing states, Democrats made a fairly major geographic push into the Sun Belt by seriously contesting Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, while regaining critical terrain in the Midwest.
As of Thursday morning, Biden led in Arizona and was running even in Georgia, four years after Clinton lost the two states by roughly 3.5% and 5%, respectively, and the party took yet another bite out of the Republicans’ dominance in Texas.
Meanwhile, the once-reliable Democratic strongholds of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were again hyper-competitive and should remain toss-ups, if future GOP nominees retain Trump’s appeal with white working-class voters.
A record number of Americans voted in this election.
The 66% of eligible voters who turned out for the general election could represent the highest turnout rate in 120 years, according to early estimates from the United States Election Project.
What Does This Mean for Washington?
Republicans are in position to hold onto a slim majority in the Senate. January runoffs in both Georgia Senate races could make the difference between a 50-50 split and a filibuster-proof majority for Republicans. The GOP has also cut into Speaker Pelosi’s majority with modest gains in the House.
Divided government looks likely.
Even if Democrats do gain control of the Senate and White House, they will do so by the slimmest of margins and need to protect vulnerable incumbents.
This makes the passage of big partisan legislation seem highly unlikely, including a major package of tax increases for Democrats or changes to the healthcare system for either party.
This complicates personnel appointments and significantly diminishes progressive influence over a potential Biden presidency.
This is good news for a range of businesses and industries, as evidenced by the sharp jump in stocks on Wednesday, because major changes to the tax code look much less likely.
Between tight results in the Electoral College, loss of House seats, and failure to gain a Senate majority, some Congressional Democrats are already questioning the direction of their party and calling for a change in leadership.
Coalitions Will Be Crucial
Even shaping the executive branch will prove to be more challenging, as the Biden administration must negotiate with Senate Republicans to confirm nominees. Progressive candidates that have been floated for cabinet positions throughout the campaign are not likely to be confirmed.
State-level ballot initiatives point to the importance of building coalitions across parties and advancing policy priorities by appealing to diverse groups of voters with specific, targeted messages.
California voters approved Proposition 22 by a wide margin, rebuking a sweeping labor law passed by Democratic lawmakers in a heavily Democratic state.
Voters approved a $15 minimum wage in Florida, where Republicans control nearly every lever of government at the state level.
Cannabis legalization passed in five geographically, ideologically, and economically diverse states.
What the Exits Show
Republican (or Trump) Strengths (groups in which candidate won 60%+):
Conservatives (84%), evangelicals, whites without college degrees (64%), voters whose financial situation improved in the last four years (72%)
Democratic (or Biden) Strengths (groups in which candidate won 60%+):
Liberals (89%), moderates (64%), city dwellers (60%), minorities (72%), younger voters (62%), first-time voters (60%), voters whose financial situation did not improve (74% for people who are worse off; 64% for people who are about the same)
Trump won record support for a Republican among black men and gained ground with Hispanic voters, while Biden flipped the suburban vote and ate into Trump’s dominance among white men, losing that group by 18% four years after Clinton lost it by 31%.
Trump dominated among voters who cared most about the economy (82%) and issues of crime and safety (71%).
Biden dominated among voters who cared most about racial inequality (91%), the coronavirus (82%), and healthcare (63%).
Trump dominated voters who wanted a strong leader (71%), while Biden dominated among voters looking for the next president to unite the country (76%) and those who most value good judgment (68%).
Trump and Biden split voters who wanted a candidate who cares about people like them, and also on who would better handle the economy.
More voters (51%) prioritized containing the coronavirus over those who want to rebuild the economy, even if it undermines efforts to curtain the pandemic (42%). Biden won the first group with 80% of that vote, while 76% of those who prioritized the economy backed Trump.
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What We Know
The United States is just as polarized as it was four years ago.
Even if Joe Biden wins, Tuesday was not the wave many Democrats, pollsters, and members of the media predicted, as Trump preserved much of his 2016 coalition.
Despite those still-narrow margins nationally and in key swing states, Democrats made a fairly major geographic push into the Sun Belt by seriously contesting Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, while regaining critical terrain in the Midwest.
A record number of Americans voted in this election.
What Does This Mean for Washington?
Republicans are in position to hold onto a slim majority in the Senate. January runoffs in both Georgia Senate races could make the difference between a 50-50 split and a filibuster-proof majority for Republicans. The GOP has also cut into Speaker Pelosi’s majority with modest gains in the House.
Divided government looks likely.
Coalitions Will Be Crucial
State-level ballot initiatives point to the importance of building coalitions across parties and advancing policy priorities by appealing to diverse groups of voters with specific, targeted messages.
What the Exits Show
Republican (or Trump) Strengths (groups in which candidate won 60%+):
Democratic (or Biden) Strengths (groups in which candidate won 60%+):
Trump won record support for a Republican among black men and gained ground with Hispanic voters, while Biden flipped the suburban vote and ate into Trump’s dominance among white men, losing that group by 18% four years after Clinton lost it by 31%.
More voters (51%) prioritized containing the coronavirus over those who want to rebuild the economy, even if it undermines efforts to curtain the pandemic (42%). Biden won the first group with 80% of that vote, while 76% of those who prioritized the economy backed Trump.