October 2021 Memo – Numbers Driving The Narrative

88% – Business sectors experiencing a decrease in positivity ratings in Gallup’s industry image survey

• Six of those sectors – healthcare, oil and gas, electric and gas utilities, internet, retail, and farming and agriculture – experienced double-digit declines in positivity ratings from 2020 to 2021.
• Average positive ratings across all 25 business sectors are at the lowest point since 2011.
• Several industries, including television and radio, reached all-time lows.

WHAT IT MEANS: Americans have increasingly asked businesses to lean into political and social issues in recent years and three-quarters of employees expect their companies to weigh in on cultural and societal issues, even when those issues are unrelated to their business. This engagement can yield positive results, but companies should be prepared with a strategy for navigating complex issues in an increasingly challenging environment.

0.5% – Decrease in real wages for the lowest-earning tier of American workers since August 2021

• According to Goldman Sachs, low-wage workers saw an average pay increase of 5.3% in the second quarter of 2021, but rising inflation has led to a year-over-year drop in real wages.
• Year-over-year consumer prices also rose 5.3% in August – a 13-year high.
• Despite rising demands for labor and higher pay, the country added only 235,000 jobs in August, a number widely labeled as ‘disappointing,’ thanks to the Delta variant.

WHAT IT MEANS: As the country heads into another election year, economic issues will significantly drive the political environment. Democrats hold unified control over the White House and both chambers of Congress and already face the historical headwinds of a midterm election in President Biden’s first term. Their challenge could be further compounded by the Federal Reserve now saying that inflation pressure will continue into 2022.

5% – Shift away from the Democrats’ 2020 presidential election margin of victory in the 2021 California recall election

• 40% of heavily Hispanic Imperial County, which sits along the U.S.-Mexico border, voted to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA). The same county gave President Trump 26% in 2016 and 34% in 2020.
• President Biden’s job approval rating hit a record low, dropping to 38% from a high of 50 in February, with an approval rating of only 32% among independent voters. His disapproval rating climbed to 53%.
• Nationally, President Biden registered a 51% disapproval rating among Hispanic voters in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

WHAT IT MEANS: While Governor Gavin Newsom defeated recall by 24 points, his margins in competitive house districts, among key demographics, could still be a bellwether for Republican gains in 2022. Democrats are showing potential long-term erosion among a segment of voters that notably shifted away from Democrats in 2020. Political analyst David Wasserman noted that even a larger margin of victory would set the table for a Republican takeover of Congress.

1.8 million – Number of women who have dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic

• Numerous factors, including the need to provide pandemic-era childcare, drove the share of women over the age of 20 participating in the workforce down to 57.5% – the lowest rate in more than 30 years.
• Meanwhile, the Marshall Plan for Moms found that nearly half of working mothers experienced unemployment or reduced income during the pandemic. At the same time, 65% of female voters say the government hasn’t done enough to help moms through the pandemic.
• More than three-quarters (77%) of female voters said they would support a candidate who shares their views on core parenting-related issues, even if that candidate is from a different political party.

WHAT IT MEANS: COVID-19 continues to transform both the economy and the electorate, and pandemic-era public policy will shape the outcome of elections across the country at least into 2022. Whether voters reaffirm those policy choices or demand a change in direction, the next incoming class of governors and members of Congress will be inextricably tied to the pandemic. It will affect policymaking for years, if not decades.

33% – Increase in Facebook advertising costs since 2019

• Since the third quarter of 2019, the last full quarter before the pandemic, the cost per thousand impressions (CPM) on the world’s largest social media platform has grown by a third.
• Instagram’s CPM was up 23% during that period, while Google’s cost per click has also grown by 23%.
• Advertisers cut back on spending early in the pandemic but came back in full force this year.

WHAT IT MEANS: High demand, combined with new privacy measures, has made advertising not only more expensive, but also made it more difficult to reach audiences effectively. It is more important than ever that companies build targeted, cost-effective audiences to adapt to the rapidly changing digital advertising environment.

48% – Adults who believe the government should restrict misinformation online

• This figure represents an increase of nine percentage points since 2018, according to Pew.
• The underlying numbers reflect rapid polarization by party affiliation. In 2021, 65%of Democrats favor government restriction of misinformation, compared to 40%in 2018. Republican support fell from 37% in 2018 to 28% in 2021.
• Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who believe tech companies should restrict misinformation only rose three points, from 56 in 2018 to 59 in 2021.

WHAT IT MEANS: Since the Trump presidency, Americans have become even more polarized, not just in how they consume information, but also in their beliefs about how it can be accessed. The overall increase in support for more restrictive government action reflects that polarization – as the parties grow farther apart, they have become increasingly entrenched on their side of the partisan media and social media divide. This is yet another piece of evidence that the fragmented audience segments targeted by political organizations, companies, and news organizations are likely becoming more ideologically homogenous.