21 M – Number of Americans Unemployed at the End of May
Even after the economy added 2.5 million jobs in May, the number of unemployed Americans has still nearly quadrupled since February, with unemployment hovering around 17% for minority workers.
One sector that continues to hemorrhage jobs: the government. More than 1.5 million government workers lost jobs in April and May, a number that could continue to swell, if state and local tax receipts plunge, as is typical in a recession.
WHAT IT MEANS: This will be the ultimate glass is half-empty/half-full debate heading into November. Republicans should be able to point to consistent job gains to say President Trump is reviving the economy, while Democrats will ask voters to take a step back to remember just how far we’ve fallen. Those competing motives will surely influence policymakers, if the expected fall surge in coronavirus cases actually materializes.
4.3% – Increase in Hourly Earnings for American Workers Since February
Under normal circumstances, this jump would be great news. Instead, the unexpected increase illustrates just how much harder the COVID-related economic slowdown has hit lower-wage workers.
Almost 40% of households earning less than $40,000 saw at least one job loss in March, according to a Fed survey, compared with just 13% for those earning more than $100,000. The abrupt wage increase represents lower-wage workers losing jobs while higher earners keep theirs.
WHAT IT MEANS: The pandemic has exposed enormous economic disparities in this country and forced more Americans to confront this longstanding divide. The split has yet to manifest itself politically, but it is hard to see how such profound dislocations won’t eventually impact Americans’ political behavior.
32 – Days the Full House Will Be in Session Before the Nov. Election
The full House will only be in session for 16 days before the August recess, the traditional deadline for Congress to finish any major pending legislation in an election year.
The Senate is scheduled to operate for 45 days before the election, including before the August recess.
WHAT IT MEANS: Congress is expected to tackle police reform and approve another roughly $1 trillion to address the pandemic and the resulting recession before members leave town for the August recess. That is not a lot of time to approve such major legislation with potential pitfalls for both parties, but members are similarly running out of time to pass bills they can run on in the fall.
44¢ – Price to Buy Trump Reelection on Betting Market
Just pick a metric, and it will show an erosion of support for President Trump. Since late March, the gap between his approval and disapproval ratings has yawned from 2 percentage points to more than 12 percentage points. Over the same stretch, the price to buy his reelection has fallen 5 cents on betting markets, after months of relatively stability.
Not surprisingly, Joe Biden’s lead over the president has grown from 5 percentage points to more than 9 percentage points since late March, according to an aggregation of polls on RealClearPolitics. Perhaps more damaging: 80% of Americans now say the country is out of control, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
WHAT IT MEANS: Four months is an eternity in the Trump era – remember impeachment? But the pandemic, the resulting recession, and the weeks of racial-justice protests have caused undeniable political damage to the president. Transformative politicians have a habit of defying premature political obituaries – and love him or hate him, Trump is certainly transformative – but this feels different.
61% – Voters Under 35 Who Say They Will Definitely Vote in Nov.
In total, 80% of these younger voters will either DEFINITELY or PROBABLY vote, an abrupt and dramatic shift from January when 63% of these voters said they would either NOT vote or were still on the fence about casting a ballot, according to polling from NextGen America
Voter registrations, volunteer activity, and donations for groups linked to Democratic causes are surging in the midst of protests following the death of George Floyd, according to voting advocacy organizations.
WHAT IT MEANS: We could be watching an entire generation come alive politically. These younger voters have very little enthusiasm for Joe Biden, but the wave of protests that resulted from Floyd’s killing and the resurgence in support for the Black Lives Matter movement has – at least for the moment – energized voters under the age of 35.
38% – Gap Between Republicans and Democrats Who “Always” Wear a Mask
Some 81% of Democrats say they “always” wear a mask outside the house, compared with 43% of Republicans and 64% of Independents, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll.
That split is roughly emblematic differing levels of of support for the Black Lives Matter movement, with 91% of Democrats saying they support the movement compared with 40% of Republicans.
WHAT IT MEANS: Whether it’s the chicken or the egg, politics define our reaction to just about everything these days, from facial coverings to social movements. And those conversations are only growing more insulated and heated.
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21 M – Number of Americans Unemployed at the End of May
4.3% – Increase in Hourly Earnings for American Workers Since February
Under normal circumstances, this jump would be great news. Instead, the unexpected increase illustrates just how much harder the COVID-related economic slowdown has hit lower-wage workers.
Almost 40% of households earning less than $40,000 saw at least one job loss in March, according to a Fed survey, compared with just 13% for those earning more than $100,000. The abrupt wage increase represents lower-wage workers losing jobs while higher earners keep theirs.
32 – Days the Full House Will Be in Session Before the Nov. Election
The full House will only be in session for 16 days before the August recess, the traditional deadline for Congress to finish any major pending legislation in an election year.
The Senate is scheduled to operate for 45 days before the election, including before the August recess.
44¢ – Price to Buy Trump Reelection on Betting Market
Just pick a metric, and it will show an erosion of support for President Trump. Since late March, the gap between his approval and disapproval ratings has yawned from 2 percentage points to more than 12 percentage points. Over the same stretch, the price to buy his reelection has fallen 5 cents on betting markets, after months of relatively stability.
Not surprisingly, Joe Biden’s lead over the president has grown from 5 percentage points to more than 9 percentage points since late March, according to an aggregation of polls on RealClearPolitics. Perhaps more damaging: 80% of Americans now say the country is out of control, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
61% – Voters Under 35 Who Say They Will Definitely Vote in Nov.
In total, 80% of these younger voters will either DEFINITELY or PROBABLY vote, an abrupt and dramatic shift from January when 63% of these voters said they would either NOT vote or were still on the fence about casting a ballot, according to polling from NextGen America
Voter registrations, volunteer activity, and donations for groups linked to Democratic causes are surging in the midst of protests following the death of George Floyd, according to voting advocacy organizations.
38% – Gap Between Republicans and Democrats Who “Always” Wear a Mask
Some 81% of Democrats say they “always” wear a mask outside the house, compared with 43% of Republicans and 64% of Independents, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll.
That split is roughly emblematic differing levels of of support for the Black Lives Matter movement, with 91% of Democrats saying they support the movement compared with 40% of Republicans.