January 2020 - Numbers Driving the Narrative

19% – Americans Who Trust National News Media

During Bill Clinton’s impeachment in 1998, 33% of Americans had confidence in the media. Trust was even higher (39%) during Richard Nixon’s impeachment in 1973 and 1974.
The numbers, like just about everything else in American life, reflect a deep partisan split, with Trump supporters particularly skeptical of the national news media.

WHAT IT MEANS: Trust in the media has been declining for years. As evidence, newspaper circulation continues to plummet. Americans increasingly tune out the traditional gatekeepers, so businesses, politicians and other organizations need to communicate directly – and honestly – with the constituencies they care about to get their message across.

42.6% – Democrats Supporting Biden, Buttigieg or Bloomberg

The three leading centrist Democrats – former Vice President Joe Biden, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg – collectively edge the three top progressives – Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and billionaire activist Tom Steyer, 42.6% – 37.6%.
These national polling averages do not necessarily reflect the state of play in the early-voting states, but they show just how evenly divided the party is between liberal ideologues driving the conversation around health care, regulation and other hot-button political issues and more moderate contenders.

WHAT IT MEANS: This nominating contest pits one ideological wing of the party against another, and while Progressives are ascendant, polls suggest centrists are holding their ground. Despite all the coverage of this rift, Democrats will rally around their nominee (even if it takes more time to pick that person) because nothing rallies partisans more than a shared enemy. And it’s hard to think of a villain Democrats have reviled more than Donald Trump.

4.0% – Democratic Delegates Awarded in February

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina set the tone for primary voting, but they are a blip compared with the states that vote later in the calendar.
March contests will award 61% of the total Democratic delegates, including the single biggest trove on Super Tuesday (March 3) when 15 states hold primaries or caucuses, including California and Texas.

WHAT IT MEANS: The first four nominating contests carry enormous symbolic weight and should winnow the field significantly, but the race will be decided (or not…) in March. A muddle in March creates the very real scenario that Democrats don’t have a nominee until the convention in Milwaukee, fulfilling every political junkie’s dream (which is the best reason we can think of for why it won’t happen).

4.5% – Wage Growth Jumps for Bottom Quartile

That exceeds the 2.9% of wage growth for workers in the top quartile of earners.
This income growth signals a measurable improvement in purchasing power for these workers at the bottom because inflation remained modest at around 2%.

WHAT IT MEANS: This is good news for the economy because expanded purchasing power will give workers more money to spend and save. It is also good news for President Trump because he can cite it as evidence lower-income Americans are benefitting from his economy.

23% – Americans Who Trust Big Business

Only the media (newspapers – 23%; TV news – 18%) and Congress (11%) ranked lower.
This lack of confidence in big corporations stretches back to the burst of the Tech bubble and the myriad accounting and governance scandals exposed by that market collapse.

WHAT IT MEANS: This skepticism runs deeper than lingering resentment from the Great Recession. Despite record job growth and a soaring stock market, large companies need to find creative ways to communicate their value – and values – to workers and the community at large. Given the continued skepticism of large institutions, tangible initiatives carry the most weight.

80% – Families Who Believe Their Lives Will Improve in 2020

This burst of optimism for the new year is an abrupt shift emerging from the most pessimistic decade in generations.
On average, over the last decade, 60% of Americans thought the U.S. was headed in the wrong direction.

WHAT IT MEANS: Public opinion tends to trail reality, and while Americans are still generally skeptical about the direction of the country, the optimism Americans express about their own lives suggests a decade of economic expansion is finally making an impact on how people feel about their own circumstances. Events will determine whether the public’s newfound optimism is justified.