April 2020 - Numbers Driving the Narrative

88% – Americans who view the coronavirus as a major economic threat

• Sixty-five percent think it will trigger a recession or depression, with Democrats slightly more pessimistic than Republicans, and 49 percent say it hurt their personal finances.
• These numbers align with the 66 percent who now consider it as a major health risk, up nearly 20 percentage points in just two weeks.

WHAT IT MEANS: The anxiety is widespread and real. A third of Americans say someone in their household has either been laid off or forced to take a pay cut since the outbreak began. These once-in-a-decade disruptions reshape the economy in often unexpected ways and produce societal ripples that can take years to manifest.

300% – Jump in background checks for gun purchases

• This massive dislocation in the American economy will have winners and losers. Restaurants, the travel industry, brick-and-mortar retailers, and small businesses more broadly have been crippled by the necessary restrictions on everyday activities.
• Other businesses are thriving, particularly those on which homebound Americans depend. At this point, the winners include online retailers, grocery stores, videoconferencing companies, and the aforementioned firearms industry, which saw background checks triple from the previous year.

WHAT IT MEANS: The forced shutdown of the global economy will accelerate the pre-existing decline of some industries, while cementing the dominance of already large companies like Amazon and giving rise to a handful of well-positioned newcomers (Zoom, Marco Polo, etc.). Some already struggling industries may never recover.

6.6M – Unemployment claims for the week ending March 28

• This dislocation will be particularly painful for the rank-and-file workers in the hardest-hit sectors. Restaurants, for example, have lost $25 billion since March 1. U.S. retail chains have closed nearly 50,000 stores.
• Other mostly large companies are staffing up quickly to meet this spike in demand from people stuck at home. For example, Amazon, Walmart, and a handful of already dominant companies are reportedly hiring a combined 500,000 workers. However, this hiring binge won’t come close to offsetting the losses elsewhere.

WHAT IT MEANS: Just as this pandemic is reshuffling entire industries, it will relocate the workforce more broadly. Some workers will transition easily. Others won’t. This uneven restructuring is bound to fuel other lingering resentments as the change plays out.

30% – Average jump in online traffic for top news sites

• The bright spot for news outlets at both the national and local level is that online traffic has increased significantly as homebound readers devour information about the pandemic.
• This surge in online readership does not mean that audience entirely appreciates the coverage they are reading. Less than half of Americans approve of the way the media is covering this pandemic.

WHAT IT MEANS: This uptick in web traffic may prove a false flicker for an industry in which many outlets were already struggling to remain afloat. Some analysts project local advertising to decline by as much as $30 billion this year, so this bump in online readership might not be enough to prevent further layoffs and more media outlets closing.

Zero – Number of votes against the $2.2 trillion stimulus package

• In 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, 228 House members sank the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), sending markets into a tailspin before the House eventually approved it.
• In contrast, Republicans and Democrats, at a time of deep partisan dysfunction, locked arms last week to pass the single-largest economic stimulus package in American history without much more than a grumble of dissent.

WHAT IT MEANS: TARP, approved during the waning days of George W. Bush’s presidency, spawned a decade of resentment among the ascendant fringe in both parties. The unity this time suggests the backlash won’t be nearly as robust. It helps that the package was aimed at boosting the entire economy, not a single industry. It is also a stunning example of just how quickly Donald Trump has remade the Republican Party.

381,112 – Increase in Democratic primary voters in Michigan

• Turnout in Michigan’s Democratic primary increased by 30 percent from 2016, a favorable development for the party out of power in one of the key battlegrounds that could decide the outcome of the 2020 election.
• It wasn’t just Michigan; the number of Democratic primary voters was up in just about every swing state, including Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, where turnout jumped nearly 70 percent from 2016. Even Texas, which is not yet a swing state, saw turnout increase by 45 percent.

WHAT IT MEANS: Currently, the presidential election is largely on hold, but the political world is bound to look a lot different once it resumes. For example, many public-opinion polls show Donald Trump notching the highest approval ratings of his presidency since the pandemic took hold in the United States. But the Democrats’ increased primary turnout offers further proof that the party remains motivated to oust Trump – and the zeal extends to states that will decide the winner in November (or whenever we vote…).