Insights into the Shifting Landscape of the 2024 Election Cycle
September Update
As the 2024 election unfolds, we’re going beyond the headlines to analyze the political strategies driving the race for the White House and control on Capitol Hill. Both parties are investing heavily—over $14 million in Spanish-language media alone—and intensifying efforts to define their opponents. As the presidential debate approaches, watch for a potential viral policy moment that could shift the landscape. For corporations, understanding how these inflection points, including VP picks, can impact voter behavior and public perception is crucial for crafting effective advocacy campaigns this fall.
We’ve developed an essential resource to provide clarity on the current political landscape and its far-reaching implications. Dive into our comprehensive overview below to stay ahead of the curve and see what trends and shifts companies should watch for.
The Bottom Line Up Front
- Trends in Media & Political Advertising. As both Parties court the Hispanic vote, how is that reflected in advertising investments? And are the candidates using their advertising to define themselves or each other?
- The Running Mates. The Presidential tickets are set. Beyond the media hype, what impact could VP nominees Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance have on the race?
- Debating the Debates. An increasingly polarized electorate means fewer Americans tuning in to the next presidential debate will be undecided voters. How much will this month’s Trump-Harris debate matter?
.png?width=640&height=409&name=Picture1%20(1).png)
The White House
Top Battleground States
Toss Up
- Arizona
- Nevada
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Georgia
- North Carolina
Lean Dem
- Minnesota
- New Hampshire
The Senate
Republicans need a net gain of 2 seats for the majority (or 1 seat and control of the White House).
The House
There are currently 173 “Solid Democrat” seats and 185 “Solid Republican” seats.
For a majority, Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats.
New York and California are once again the focus of the fight for control of the House. Seven of the 11 toss-up seats being defended by the GOP are in these two states.
Media & Advertising Trends
With Republicans making inroads with Latino voters, Democrats are spending nearly double on Spanish-language media through Election Day.
Spanish-Language Planned Media Spending From Labor Day Through Election Day
Republicans |
Democrats |
$4.56 Million |
$9.50 Million |
An analysis of 2024 political ads shows that while positive ad impressions are similar for both parties, GOP campaigns are spending more to define their opponents than to promote their own agendas.
The Running Mates
The tickets are set. Beyond the media hype, what impact could the vice presidential nominees have on the 2024 race for the White House?
Does the VP Pick Matter?
Yes, but: Previous research shows that VP nominees have little effect on adding votes for the ticket. For example, statistical models show that the no. 2 on the ticket has zero effect on the outcome in the VP nominee’s home state.
So, What Matters Most?
- The ability to stay on message and avoid distracting narratives
- Driving earned media coverage of the campaign
- Being a credible messenger for the nominee’s political and policy agenda
Debating the Debates
The first Presidential debate of 2024 was the beginning of the end for President Biden’s re-election campaign. What can we expect from the Trump-Harris debate?
High Stakes for Harris:
The unprecedented lateness of Harris’s candidacy makes the first debate a stress test for Harris’s viability and her first introduction to voters beyond the Democratic audience of the Democratic convention.
High Stakes for Trump:
While Trump is a known quantity, the age contrast with the new Democratic nominee will be notable in these only times they are side-by-side.
Could there be a viral policy moment?
Possibly Foreign Policy: Likely won’t be discussed on the campaign trail but perhaps will be in the debate. Republicans are critical of Walz’s time in China.
Policy Dependent on Format and Moderators. In previous debates, Trump prefers style over policy announcements and Harris will likely be asked about her previous policy contradictions.
Reminder: The Bottom Line
- Both Parties are courting Hispanic voters and Democrats are spending more on Spanish-language media to make their case.
- The VP candidates are popular within their own Parties but are relatively unknown amongst the broader electorate, and their impact on the race will likely be minimal.
- The stakes are high for both Trump and Harris as they head into their first debate this month.
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Reach out to info@narrativedc.com for a deeper dive into our data, strategic counsel, and other communications, reputation management, and public affairs support.
ABOUT NARRATIVE STRATEGIES
Narrative is a full-service strategic communications firm creatively solving today’s most demanding reputational and public affairs challenges at the convergence of business, media, and politics. Narrative is a premier partner for the world’s most influential brands by building upon our deep experience synthesizing complex issues and executing public affairs, media and public relations, crisis response, and other mission-critical initiatives. Our expertise spans industries and issue sets, including biopharmaceuticals, consumer products, energy, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, tax, trade, technology, and more. We are powered by an award-winning team of senior strategists, detail-oriented practitioners, and imaginative creators who provide premium-level counsel and integrated service offerings that shape the ever-evolving communications landscape. To learn more, email info@narrativedc.com.
