Insights into the Shifting Landscape of the 2024 Election Cycle
October Update
The final sprint for the 2024 presidential election is on, and voting is already underway in several states. Key battlegrounds remain up for grabs as the campaigns ramp up their voter outreach strategies. For example, both parties leverage digital influencers and content creators for engagement. From podcasts to social media, candidates are meeting voters where they are online.
For businesses looking to stay ahead, we have pinpointed the top 10 political advertising trends that have emerged since the September Trump-Harris debate. These trends can serve as valuable tools for guiding issue education and advocacy campaigns this fall and into early 2025.
The Bottom Line Up Front
|
We're in the final sprint. Voting is already underway in several states but with just one month to go, the Presidential swing states are still up for grabs and campaigns and committees are continuing to invest in expanding their maps. |
 |
A closely divided Congress is inevitable. Razor-thin margins are all but guaranteed in both the House and the Senate, likely forcing compromise on some issues and continued partisan standoffs on “routine” procedures like government funding. |
|
Polls are not prophecy. In this age of polarization, both major-party candidates are always within striking distance. Trump also has a history of over-performing the polls (in both 2016 and 2020). |
The White House
Present Day vs. On This Day in History
|
|
|
Trump
46.8%
|
Harris
48.8% (+2)
|
 |
 |
|
Biden
+9
October 8, 2020
|
Clinton
+4.6
October 8, 2016
|
Top Battleground States
Toss Up
- Arizona
- Nevada
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Georgia
- North Carolina
But...Polls Are Not Prophecy
Following the 2016 and 2020 elections, candidates and voters alike wonder whether they can trust this year's polls.
The Senate
Republicans need a net gain of 2 seats for the majority (or 1 seat and control of the White House).
Is the Senate Map Expanding?
Earlier this year, Republicans had their mirage states (see Maryland). With Montana moving closer to the GOP, now it's the Democrats' turn as they make a late push for Florida and Texas.
The House
Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats for a majority.
Following redistricting, only 35 House races are truly competitive in 2024. Prior to redistricting, 51 seats were considered competitive.
There are currently 5 Trump-district Democrats, but 16 Biden-district Republicans.
A Massive Swing Would Be Rare
Political Advertising Trends
The top 10 topics campaigns have been discussing since the September Trump-Harris Debate.
The Rising Use and Impact of Influencers and Content Creators
The 2024 Presidential election will be the first with widespread use of micro-influencers – people with smaller online followings who don’t typically post about politics but have built small, specific, highly engaged audiences.
- In 2023, a micro-influencer campaign may have contributed to record turnout in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
- And it's not just US politics that is seeing the growth of micro-influencers: Major political parties in India are courting influencers to help reach rural voters.
Influencers have also opened their audiences to the candidates. Both Trump and Harris have appeared on creator-led podcasts, including "This Past Weekend" with Theo Von and "Call Her Daddy" with Alex Cooper.
Reminder: The Bottom Line
- It is all but guaranteed that Congress will be closely divided - no matter who wins.
- The polls are tightening as Election Day approaches. Are states like Texas and Florida in play for Democrats? Or is it just a mirage?
- Political influencers are here to stay, but it remains to be seen what impact they will have on 2024's biggest known unknown: turnout.
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Reach out to info@narrativestrategies.com for a deeper dive into our data, strategic counsel, and other communications, reputation management, and public affairs support.
ABOUT NARRATIVE
Narrative is a full-service strategic communications firm creatively solving today’s most demanding reputational and public affairs challenges at the convergence of business, media, and politics. Narrative is a premier partner for the world’s most influential brands by building upon our deep experience synthesizing complex issues and executing public affairs, media and public relations, crisis response, and other mission-critical initiatives. Our expertise spans industries and issue sets, including biopharmaceuticals, consumer products, energy, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, tax, trade, technology, and more. We are powered by an award-winning team of senior strategists, detail-oriented practitioners, and imaginative creators who provide premium-level counsel and integrated service offerings that shape the ever-evolving communications landscape. To learn more, email info@narrativestrategies.com.
