Real estate is at a critical crossroads as market forces and political scrutiny overwhelms the industry. For example, "housing" was mentioned over ten times in the most recent presidential debate. Expectations for increased activity at the federal level are set to fuel legislative, regulatory, and legal actions at the state and local levels, likely leading to material threats to the industry.
Housing affordability has taken center stage in the 2024 presidential election, rising from a local issue that's received consistent attention to a national one that's increasingly polarized.
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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Trade Jabs in New Housing Affordability Campaign Ads |
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Housing’s Worst Crisis in Decades Reverberates Through 2024 Race |
Harris Ads
Trump Ads
In the News
The median monthly housing payment for homebuyers in swing states has nearly doubled since the 2020 presidential election. (Bloomberg and Redfin)
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Home ownership affordability hits its lowest level since at least 2006 in June. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Home Ownership Affordability Monitor) |
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Shelter accounted for more than 70 percent of core inflation's increase over the 12-month period ending in August. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) |
Data sourced from National Conference of State Legislatures' Housing & Homeless Legislation Database
The reality of today's market is that dramatic shifts in mortgage rates coupled with pandemic-era changes in how people live shed a painful light on a significant lack of supply in housing.
But the federal, state, and local actors are targeting "corporate interests" as culprit in an attempt to:
Limit ownership of properties
Lower housing costs
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This support for enhanced regulation and increased scrutiny will bleed into other areas of the market.
| Private Investment in Student Housing |
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| Local Commercial Development | |
| Proptech Platform Operations |
Point to the Reality of Their Role in the Market:
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Highlight the Value They Add to Communities and Economies:
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Regardless of which party takes control of the White House and Congress, we expect some degree of bipartisan scrutiny and noise surrounding all facets of real estate and housing policy to increase.
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Both political parties will take a close look at aspects of the real estate market and housing policy as they prioritize their policy agenda in 2025. |
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Increased unilateral executive branch action, especially under a Harris Administration.
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Continued drum beat and potential escalation of congressional investigations, hearings, and political rhetoric. |
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Increased enforcement actions from the FTC, DOJ, and heightened state AG activity across blue and red states. |
Bottom Line: Despite the mounting wave of scrutiny over the past few years, real estate's political moment has not yet reached its peak. This increase in noise and activity will continue to fuel legislative, regulatory, and legal action at the state and local levels where material threats to operations are likely to occur.
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